THE CRUNCH

Bill Gates says the world should brace for roughly 20 years of AI disruption, warning the transition could be so painful it splits society in two: between people comfortable living near the technological frontier and those who reject it. Speaking on The Verge's Decoder podcast, the Microsoft cofounder argued the response so far, from the White House and from the AI industry itself, has not been adequate to the speed of the challenge.

Gates has been sharpening his warnings for months. In an essay published in late August titled "The turbulent AI era is here. The choices we make now are critical," he wrote that even under the best circumstances the transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history. In interviews since, he has called AI "the most dangerous thing that humans have ever gone near" and said it "makes nuclear weapons look like nothing."

On the technology itself, Gates identified models without safeguards as the big near-term risk, saying the danger of models where anyone can strip out protections is very high compared with models monitored to keep cyberattackers and bioterrorists from exploiting them. Over longer timeframes, he said, the control problem applies to any state-of-the-art model. He also pointed to AI's rapid recent gains, from writing code and finding cyber flaws to reasoning in biology and disrupting the job market, as reasons society needs to be ready.

It is a continuation of a warning campaign. Back in September, Gates told Reuters that governments were "way behind" on AI, that he had been talking with world leaders including President Trump about his concerns, and that he was trying to meet China's President Xi Jinping.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

Gates said in September he had been in talks with world leaders including Donald Trump and was seeking a meeting with Xi Jinping, so whether that engagement with governments materialises is worth watching.