THE CRUNCH
Elon Musk's Terafab will reportedly receive its first EUV lithography tool from ASML in the middle of next year, according to reporting by Tim Culpan citing sources with knowledge of the matter. The timing is awkward: SemiAnalysis expects the shell of the company's development fab on the north campus of Giga Texas near Austin, where Tesla broke ground in April, to be completed only in late 2027, with equipment installation beginning after that. That means the scanner could sit unused for months.
The gap is not as costly for Terafab as it would be for a traditional chipmaker, but storing a hard-to-obtain ASML Twinscan NXE system for an extended period is still an unusual position. SemiAnalysis predicts the development fab will take roughly 15 months to complete and a further six months to equip before experimental wafer processing starts, preparing the team for the main Terafab volume fab.
The conventional EUV delivery also indicates that first-generation Terafab production will rely on standard equipment rather than the free electron laser light sources Musk has praised. That matters because Terafab is set to use Intel's 14A manufacturing technology, and transplanting that process onto untested lithography tools would require extensive qualification and could delay the ramp.
The volume fab itself has a longer road ahead. SemiAnalysis projects Terafab Grimes phase 1 will take 20 months to build, 17 months to equip and six months to ramp, reaching operation in late 2029 and volume by mid-2030. Using Intel's 14A means Terafab will have a proven process, though not the most advanced node available at that point, with TSMC's A12 expected in late 2029. Since Terafab is expected to serve SpaceX, Tesla and xAI exclusively, a slightly older node is unlikely to be a major drawback.