THE CRUNCH

Intel's shares fell 30% on Friday, erasing nearly $150 billion in market capitalisation in the company's largest single-day loss ever, according to Tom's Hardware. The trigger was a disappointing outlook, driven mainly by an expected drop of more than 20% in sales at Intel's client computing and physical AI group (CCPG), its main cash generator. The damage spread quickly: intraday estimates by Benzinga put the industry-wide loss at roughly $1 trillion in semiconductor market capitalisation in one day.

The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX), a benchmark tracking 30 major chip companies, plunged 9.14% to 10,465.38 points as of 2:31 PM ET. Intel was by far the biggest loser, but Arm, AMD and Qualcomm each lost around 12%, while Applied Materials, ASML, Lam Research, Micron and Broadcom fell 7% to 9%. Nvidia dropped only 5.66%, yet that still amounted to about $270 billion, meaning it lost more value in absolute dollars than Intel.

The downturn also reached server makers and cloud companies, with Dell down 12.67%, HPE down 8.10%, Supermicro down 6.96% and Oracle down 6.88%. Reuters noted that investors are increasingly questioning the scale of capital spending required to expand AI infrastructure and whether that spending is sustainable.

The underlying problem is Intel's reliance on the PC market. CCPG generated $8.1 billion in revenue in Q3 2026, down 5% year-over-year, with client processor shipments falling 14% as weak demand and competition bit, only partly offset by a 9% rise in average selling prices. Intel guided Q4 revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion and expects the client PC market to decline 10% in 2027 versus 2026, as elevated memory prices and component shortages push up PC prices and dampen demand.

The selloff was not universal. Apple, which sells only client products, slipped just 1.66%. Intel sells processors to PC makers, while Apple designs its own chips and sells them inside finished devices, so rising memory prices hit the two business models differently. The contrast suggests investors were not fleeing semiconductors as such, but reassessing the profitability and growth prospects of specific companies.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

Intel expects the client PC market to deteriorate further in Q4 2026 and into 2027, with data center growth limited by industry-wide supply constraints.