THE CRUNCH
Nvidia chief Jensen Huang believes China will develop its own advanced lithography tools by 2030, describing the achievement as 'just a matter of time'. Speaking on The All-In Podcast, Huang suggested that China's existing strengths in high-volume production mean the gap is closing rapidly. However, industry observers note that China's leading supplier, Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment, currently produces only 90
nm-class scanners, with no public evidence of volume production for 28nm immersion tools. Even if such systems are delivered by 2026, widespread industrial use would likely lag until 2028 or 2029. Furthermore, Huang's optimism does not account for the substantially more demanding requirements of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, where China is reportedly still developing the necessary light sources. Huang's view reflects a broader belief that China's capital investment and determination will eventually overcome technical hurdles, though the path to parity with ASML's current systems remains steep.
Why It Matters: Huang's prediction carries weight because his company is deeply embedded in the global AI supply chain, and his optimism could influence investor sentiment regarding China's semiconductor self-sufficiency. The comment also highlights the intensifying geopolitical competition over critical chipmaking technology, where the ability to manufacture advanced logic chips without Western tools is a strategic priority for Beijing.