THE CRUNCH
The GPU shortage shows no sign of easing. At its core, the GPU shortage is a memory problem: HBM competes for the same wafer capacity as ordinary DRAM, so as suppliers chase higher-margin HBM for AI data centres, everyday memory gets scarcer and more expensive. A JP Morgan report cited by Engadget projects DRAM prices will have risen 400 percent since 2024 by the end of 2026, and the effects are already visible: Nvidia's flagship GeForce RTX 5090 is reportedly retailing around $4,920 above its $1,999 launch price.
The squeeze extends well beyond graphics cards. The same report puts the rise in the Consumer Price Index for software and accessories at nearly a quarter over two years, with similar increases noted for consoles and laptops, and Japanese gaming GPUs running roughly 41 percent above their US counterparts. Resellers are capitalising too, with GameStop reportedly listing the PlayStation 5 Pro for about $500 above MSRP.
The structural picture is tight. Three companies, Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, account for roughly 90 percent of global DRAM production, and all three are pivoting towards data centres. Micron has ceased direct-to-consumer sales, and AI data centres are projected to consume around 70 percent of global DRAM supplies this year. A Samsung executive told Reuters HBM could account for nearly 30 percent of total DRAM production in 2027, up from 20 percent the year before, with a further shift to newer HBM4 and HBM4E generations constraining output during the transition.
Industry leaders expect things to get worse before they get better. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has said supply will be "much tighter in calendar 2027 and 2028" than in 2026, while SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung told Reuters that next year will be "the worst year in the industry's history from the supply perspective." SK Hynix chairman Chey Tae-won said at a Nvidia event that building adequate wafer supply will take "at least four to five years," with production lagging demand by 20 percent until at least 2030. Much of next year's capacity is already spoken for: Micron has reportedly sold 75 percent of its 2027 HBM output at prices "much higher than 2026 prices," and Samsung has sold almost 80 percent of its 2027 memory output, according to KB Securities, with roughly 70 percent tied up in five-year contracts.
There is some dissent. Acer CEO Jason Chen has suggested prices could plateau next year, citing the potential arrival of cheaper Chinese alternatives, though suppliers' own forecasts point the other way.