The projection is a sharp revision: the Sierra Club's earlier estimates sat between a quarter and half of the current figure. Jeremy Fusher, the group's principal advisor for climate and energy, said "the numbers continue to sort of boggle our minds."

The drivers are structural. Roughly 40% of US data centres are fed by natural gas turbines, and green sources are unlikely to keep pace with AI-driven demand. Turbine prices have risen 50% and production is backlogged for years, with one manufacturer reportedly opening production slots for 2032. Some states and countries now require new data centres to draw a large share of power from renewables, but such laws rarely apply retroactively; Ireland's rule requiring 80% renewable power only kicks in six years after a facility is powered up.

Not everyone treats the projection as settled. Brendan Pierpont of Energy Innovation argues it is hard to make a firm prediction, citing turbine availability, grid connection delays and other roadblocks. Permit requests already far exceed available grid capacity in the US, many buildouts face strong opposition, and questions about hyperscaler economics raise the possibility that some projects, and their operators, may not survive.