The pressure goes beyond packaging. Testing is becoming a bottleneck in its own right: Blackwell reportedly takes three to four times longer to test than the previous-generation Hopper, and Rubin could need as much as seven times longer. Longer test cycles keep equipment tied up, making it harder to lift output. Server CPUs and custom ASICs are also competing for the same advanced packaging capacity.

Tools are slower to arrive too, with equipment lead times reportedly stretching from three to six months to as long as eight months. TSMC has reportedly ordered this year's equipment at existing prices rather than haggling for discounts, a break from its usual use of purchasing power, because getting tools on time now matters more than getting them cheaply. Cliff Hou, TSMC's deputy co-COO, said in July that expected equipment needs had reached 1.9 times the original estimate, adding that the company had never seen demand increase so much or so frequently.

Higher costs may not stop at packaging. TSMC is reportedly eyeing broader price increases for 2027, with advanced-node wafer prices expected to rise 5% to 10%, and customers seeking capacity beyond their original allocations facing premiums that could push costs up by as much as 25%. Industry estimates cited by Trendforce put TSMC's monthly capacity at over 106,000 wafers in 2026, targeting 227,000 in 2027. TSMC is also broadening its packaging supply chain: GlobalFoundries recently agreed a five-year, $2 billion contract to make silicon interposers for CoWoS in the US from the first half of 2028, though interposers are only one part of the packaging flow.