THE CRUNCH

AI has yet to deliver any financial payoff to US businesses outside the tech sector, according to investment firm Apollo Global Management. In a posting to its Daily Spark blog, the firm argues corporate America increasingly treats token spending not as a source of growth but as a cost centre that weighs on margins.

Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok says revenue per worker may be rising for the so-called Magnificent Seven, the hyperscalers plus Apple, Nvidia and Tesla, but not for the rest of the S&P 500. He says the same applies to profit margins and to AI lifting corporate productivity growth, posting charts to back up the claims.

The assertion has met with pushback on social media, where some said they did not recognise the picture Slok paints. Others drew a parallel with the PC industry, where productivity growth lagged widespread business adoption of computers by a decade or more.

The observations do chime with other surveys: a PwC report earlier this year found most chief executives had enjoyed neither increased revenue nor decreased costs from AI despite heavy investment, while Deloitte research found AI tools have not helped most companies' bottom lines. McKinsey, by contrast, reckons the corporate world is at a turning point towards returns, though it concedes the number of businesses reporting an actual earnings boost has stayed flat.

Slok questions whether mainstream corporations will ever convert AI projects into higher revenue and margins, arguing that business intelligence is mostly judgment and depends on context, and that AI does not really understand accountability, trust, culture or fairness, all of which shape reputational risk. Apollo also notes a slowdown in token spending growth, which it says shows demand is highly price-sensitive, casting doubt on the economics of pouring billions into ever more datacenters.